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Ten films vie for this year's best picture in the Academy Awards

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February 28, 2010

by Scott Shriner

RPC Associate Editor

Let the "Supersize Oscars" begin!

It will be no ordinary Academy Award ceremony March 7. The decision to nominate 10 films -- instead of the usual five -- for Best Picture has made this year's Academy Award ceremony a must-see event. It's a major change-up of the Hollywood celebration's format, and it will be very interesting to see how it's pulled off.

It pains a movie buff to admit it, but I have only seen four of the 10 films nominated for the big prize. I was hoping to "catch up" by Oscar night, but since I'd pretty much have to see a movie a night for the next two weeks (as I write this), I doubt it's gonna happen.

But as an Oscar devotee since 1985, I do have some predictions about what the 82nd Annual Academy Awards will hold.

THE FORMAT, THE RATINGS, AND THE AVATAR FACTOR

My biggest prediction is this: The ratings for the ceremony will be up considerably from recent years. And the Oscar producers will use the ratings to decide whether this year's new format is repeated. If the ratings are even slightly higher than they've been, we'll see 10 movies up for Best Picture again next year. If they're even slightly lower, then it'll be back to five flicks in '11.

The problem is, though, that using this year as a barometer to judge whether the changes in the program work will be a mistake. The ratings going up will have nothing to do with the new format. It will all be about the blue people.

No movie since Titanic has captured so many movie-goers' hearts -- and wallets -- like Avatar. This special effects milestone has broken all previous box office records and would have been nominated for Best Picture anyway, regardless of the changes in format. So consequently interest in this year's telecast already would have drawn many more viewers than the show has in awhile ... so many, in fact, that it will be impossible to tell whether doubling the amount of nominees makes a significant difference in the overall appeal of the broadcast.

The decision to include more movies in the Best Picture category is due in no small part to the fact that many people were incensed by the exclusion of The Dark Knight from last year's crop of five nominees. It must have been clear once the disappointing ratings came in that including a blockbusting -- and critically acclaimed crowd-pleaser -- like that Batman film might have pulled in more Oscar-watchers. So that's why this year we're seeing not only the "artsy," low-budget independent films that the Oscars have become known for honoring, but also big mainstream hits like Up, District 9, Inglourious Basterds and The Blind Side. Will this experiment work? It'll be hard to tell in a year when a huge pop phenomenon like Avatar is overshadowing everything else.

BEST PICTURE

Nominated: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air.

This is the toughest call of any major category. Will it be Avatar? Or will it be The Hurt Locker, the Iraq war drama that, despite its critical acclaim, has made about one-millionth of the dough that Avatar has?

I give the edge to The Hurt Locker. It's topical, it's univerally lauded and it's a war movie, which Oscar often favors.

However, I wish I could say something clever like "The Hurt Locker has it locked up," but I can't. Avatar has a huge amount of momentum, and sci-fi/fantasy films have taken this category before. As recently as 2004, the third and final Lord of the Rings movie was crowned Best Picture in a triumph for geeks everywhere.

But Avatar? I just can't see it happening. Rings had an ace in the hole ... it was based on a distinguished and beloved novel, which gave it an extra "pedigree." Avatar on the other hand, shamelessly borrows from everything from Star Trek to Pocahontas to Dances With Wolves, but presents itself as an original work.

If anything will push Avatar over the edge though, it's the "respect the environment" message that its story not-so-subtly delivers. Hollywood loves to recognize that kind of thing. But I still think The Hurt Locker will win, along with its director Kathryn Bigelow (which would make her the first woman in Oscar history to get the Best Director award). Since Avatar director James Cameron was also the self-proclaimed "King of the world" behind that big sinking ship movie in 1997, voters may hesitate to let him sweep the Oscars again, particularly for a film that is clearly inferior to Titanic.

BEST ACTOR

Nominated: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

The winner will be: Bridges. The veteran actor has been nominated four previous times since 1971 and has no Oscar on his mantle. Freeman and Clooney are previous winners (read: no need to honor them again) and Renner and Firth are first-timers (in other words, they haven't paid their Oscar dues yet).

BEST ACTRESS

Nominated: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious; Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia.

The winner will be: Bullock. Yup, 16 years after she managed to keep a bus above 50 miles per hour with Keanu Reaves in tow, Miss Congeniality will get an Oscar. I'm a fan of Bullock's, and although I haven't seen The Blind Side, I've always thought she was underrated as an actress. This category is terrific this year -- filled with previous winners (Streep, Mirren) and newbies (Sidibe, Mulligan) alike. But the buzz points to Bullock. Her movie was a huge surprise hit and her performance has been pretty much unanimously praised.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominated: Penélope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'Nique, Precious.

The winner will be: Mo'Nique. This one's a no-brainer. Despite the critical lauding for the other four actresses nominated, Mo'Nique -- previously known mostly as a comedienne -- has swept all the major pre-Oscar awards this season for her role as an abusive mother. I haven't seen Precious yet, but from what I've heard Mo'Nique's performance is brutally impressive.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominated: Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

The winner will be: Waltz. This is the best chance Basterds has for a win. The latest opus from writer-director Quentin Tarantino is chock-full of great performances and terrific filmmaking, as is the norm for his movies. But Waltz -- previously known mostly to TV audiences in his native Germany -- came out of nowhere and stole the show with his brilliant, creepy-funny turn as Col. Hans Landa. The rest of the nominees are more well-known fellas, but the award will go to this newcomer whose performance -- like the movie he was in -- blew us all away.

THE AWESOME
CO-HOSTS

Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin will be great masters of ceremony. There's a lot of questions about what's going to happen on Oscar night. But one thing we can be sure of is that those two guys are gonna be really funny together!

E-mail: sshriner@recordpub.com

Phone: 330-686-3910




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